A thermal complex (sauna and hot tubs) is hot water at a hotel, something guests choose for its own sake rather than as an add-on to the room. For the hotel it is a second income line that depends less on how full the villas are. In the Nord Nest model (assumptions as of August 2026), the spa and thermal complex bring 36% of a share’s income.
The Nord Nest complex has a sauna, a cold plunge and two wood-fired hot tubs.
What the Nord Nest thermal complex includes
Nord Nest has eight villas, a restaurant, a spa and a thermal complex. The restaurant and spa share one building. The thermal complex sits next to it.
In the Kintamani highlands, the BMKG forecast (Indonesia’s weather agency) gave 17–19 °C at night and 24–26 °C by day for 6–8 November 2026. That is a three-day forecast, not a climate norm, but it explains why hot water suits the place.
The project is still under construction. Framing has started on the main building, and handover is planned for the end of February 2027.
Why a hotel needs a second income line
Villas earn while someone is staying in them. When occupancy drops, revenue drops with it. We covered how the quiet months work in our piece on the low season in Bali.
So Nord Nest has three income lines: villas, spa and thermal complex, and the restaurant. Each has its own occupancy and its own average check. The villa is one line, not the whole hotel.
Here is what each line means for a 10% share per month.
| Line | Income, $/mo | Share | Occupancy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villas | $1,493 | 50% | 80% |
| Spa and thermal complex | $1,068 | 36% | 70% |
| Restaurant | $401 | 14% | 60% |
| Total | $2,962 | 100% |
Income of a 10% share per month in the model, assumptions as of August 2026. Villas: 80% occupancy and a $185 rate; spa 70%; restaurant 60%.
These figures are a calculation, not a promise. The full model, with revenue and costs, is in the finance section.
Hotel spa revenue: 3.4% of revenue in the US, 36% of share income in our model
Now the main risk. CBRE’s 2025 study of 297 US hotels with a spa found the spa averages 3.4% of hotel revenue, 4.2% in luxury hotels.
In our model the spa and thermal complex bring 36% of a share’s income. The comparison is not like for like: CBRE measures share of hotel revenue, we measure share of income after costs. Even so the gap is wide, and we do not call it a market norm.
It rests on one assumption. We assume the thermal complex at Nord Nest works as a reason to come in its own right, not as a “spa at a hotel”. If guests use it like an ordinary spa, the numbers will have to be revised. We will test it after opening.
Kintamani hot springs: the demand next door
The Toya Devasya hot springs on Lake Batur are nearby, in the caldera. The query “toya devasya kintamani” is searched 18,100 times a month in Indonesia (OpenSEO, Google, as of 8 October 2026).
Entry is cheap. On Traveloka on 6 November 2026 a ticket was $4.70 for Indonesian residents and $10.78 for everyone, foreigners included. A two-tier price suggests both locals and visitors go.
Nord Nest offers hot tubs and a sauna for a small number of villas and whoever arrives for the evening.
Who we expect: domestic tourists, expats and hotel guests
Domestic tourists were 58% of Bali’s visitor flow in 2025: 9,612,511 people against 6,948,754 foreign arrivals (BPS Bali via the Bali Tourism Office, our calculation from the two figures). Their calendar is different. They peak around Eid al-Fitr and in December, not in July and August.
We expect the complex to draw domestic tourists, foreigners living on the island and villa guests. That is our hypothesis, which we will test after opening.
The thermal spring market: large, but not about Bali
The Global Wellness Institute puts thermal and mineral springs worldwide at $72 billion in revenue and 31,386 venues (2024). The market is growing, with more than 250 projects in development.
That is a global figure, and nothing follows from it for Bali. More than 93% of venues and revenue sit in Asia-Pacific and Europe, and in 2022 China and Japan together held 68% of the world’s venues. GWI gives no separate figure for Indonesia.
So we do not build the calculation on the world market: it shows the format is familiar to guests, while demand in Kintamani is assessed separately.
What we will check after opening
Three things. How many guests come to the thermal complex besides villa guests. What the occupancy is month by month, not one average. And whether the 36% share holds in practice.
If the numbers part from the model, monthly reporting will show it. How the hotel earns overall is on the Nord Nest page.
FAQ
What is a thermal complex? Hot water at a hotel: sauna and hot tubs. At Nord Nest it is a sauna, a cold plunge and two wood-fired tubs.
When does it open? Handover of the project is planned for the end of February 2027. Framing is going up on the restaurant and spa building now.
How much does the thermal complex earn? In the model as of August 2026, the spa and thermal complex bring $1,068 a month per 10% share: 36% of the share’s income at 70% occupancy. It is an assumption we will test after opening.
Next: Investing in hotel real estate: which numbers to check. How the whole hotel’s income is calculated is in the financial model.