Low season in Bali is February and March, with a second dip in November, and the peak is July and August. The quietest month of the year has about a third fewer foreign tourists than the peak: 32.9% fewer in 2024, 35.3% in 2025 and 32.3% in 2026 (January to August). The data is from BPS, Indonesia’s statistics agency, as of August 2026.
Bali tourist arrivals by month: when it gets quieter
In 2025, 6,948,754 foreign tourists came to Bali. February had 450,697, July had 697,107. July and August together make up about 20% of the year: 1,379,973 of 6,948,754.
Count per day instead of per month and the quietest is March: about 15,200 foreigners a day in both 2025 and 2026, against roughly 22,500 in July. February is two or three days shorter, so in monthly totals it looks quieter than it is.
January swings: 420,000 in 2024 and 530,000 in 2025, probably because New Year holidays shift the flow. So in one year the quietest month is January, in another February or March.
Across all three years February and March sit at the bottom, November is a second dip, and July and August are on top. November sits 24% below the peak in 2024 and 31% below in 2025.
Rainy season in Bali and an empty island are not the same thing
The rainy season in Bali runs roughly from November to March. But rain does not empty the island. December is one of the wettest months, yet in tourist numbers it is an ordinary month: 99% to 104% of the average month of the year.
The island seems to go quiet when people are not on holiday. Arrivals in 2025:
- Australia: 96,421 in February and 161,051 in July, so February is 40% lower. Looks like school holidays.
- Europe: 222,713 in August and 113,326 in November, about half. The European summer.
- China: a peak in January (60,036), a dip in March (31,043). Looks like Lunar New Year.
- Russia: the other way round. 24,886 in January, 12,038 in September. Visitors from Russia come in December and January.
That is our reading of the numbers; the data does not give reasons.
Indonesians travel on their own calendar, and their peak seems to follow Eid al-Fitr. In 2025 their February and March were quiet too: 686,000 and 633,000, against 1.13 million in April. In 2026 the holiday fell in March, and March brought 1.06 million domestic tourists.
Low season in Bali for a villa: occupancy by month
For a villa owner, occupancy matters more than tourist counts. BPS reports it separately for star-rated hotels and for the rest (“non-star and other accommodation”). A villa without a star rating is closer to the second group, although BPS does not say how many villas are in its sample.
In 2025, star-rated hotels were 46.61% full in March and 69.54% in August. The rest: 35.62% in January, 50.26% in August.
The drop from the peak is similar, −33% for star-rated and −29% for the rest. But the second group starts from a low bar: it sits noticeably lower all year.
2026 shows it best. In its best month, August, the non-star group is 43.16% full. That is less than star-rated hotels in their worst month, March, at 52.54%.
One caveat: in 2025 the category was “non-star hotels”, in 2026 “other accommodation” was added, so compare year to year with care.
Price or occupancy: what you lose in the quiet months
In a quiet month an owner can, in theory, cut the price. We have no month-by-month Bali-wide price data. There is one source for Kintamani: AirROI, 122 Airbnb listings.
Compare peak months (April, May, December) with quiet ones (February, August, September):
- monthly revenue: $610 against $342, −44%;
- occupancy: 24.4% against 17.7%;
- nightly rate: $62 against $56, −10%.
So in the quiet months it is mostly occupancy that goes, and the rate gives way less. The sample is Airbnb listings with an average nightly rate of about $60, well below hotel rates. We have no monthly rate data for villas like Nord Nest’s, so we do not guess.
The mountains keep their own season
February is quiet on the coast and in the mountains alike. But in August and September, when the coast is full, Kintamani is at its weakest, per AirROI.
The mountains peak in April, May and December.
In the rainy season the Batur caldera fills with fog and a sea of clouds. We filmed it in March 2026.
Our view: the market pays for a reason to come, and in the mountains the reason is the cool air and the fog itself. That is why at Nord Nest we are building a thermal complex (a sauna and hot tubs), a spa and a restaurant next to the villas, so guests will have something to do even when it rains. Completion is planned for the end of February 2027.
The Nord Nest model assumes 80% villa occupancy at a $185 nightly rate (assumptions as of August 2026), which gives 18.7% a year.
There is also a downside case: at 50% villa occupancy the return is about 12.5% a year. That is a calculation, with no guarantees.
For comparison, per AirDNA, 12 similar properties in Kintamani were 70% full in August 2026 at an average nightly rate of $162.
More on the Nord Nest page and in finance.
Nyepi: the day the island stands still
A quiet March in Bali also brings Nyepi, the Balinese New Year. On that day the island stops: nobody goes out, no lights, no driving, no flying.
In 2026 it fell on Thursday, 19 March. In 2027 it is Monday, 8 March.
Right after it, on 10 and 11 March 2027, comes Eid al-Fitr (the end of Ramadan), according to the 2027 holiday decree. If you are flying in for a week, check the calendar before booking.
Frequently asked questions
When is low season in Bali?
February and March, with a second dip in November. The quietest month is 32.3% to 35.3% below the peak (2024 to 2026).
When is the rainy season in Bali?
Roughly November to March. But rainy December is an ordinary month for tourists: 99% to 104% of the average month.
How many tourists come to Bali in low season?
In 2025, February had 450,697 foreign tourists and July had 697,107.
Is it worth buying a villa if it is empty in the low season?
Occupancy falls the most and the rate falls less: in Kintamani, per AirROI, the nightly rate is 10% lower in the quiet months and revenue is 44% lower. What a villa really earns over a year is in our next article: villa yield in Bali.
Do the mountains and the coast have the same season?
Not entirely. February is quiet in both, but in August and September, when the coast is full, Kintamani is at its weakest, per AirROI. The mountains peak in April, May and December.