In reports and sales decks, the average nightly rate for a villa in Canggu is $214. We opened Airbnb and looked at what the villa usually sold to investors costs right now: two bedrooms, private pool. The median is $112. For the October dates, seven villas out of ten show a struck-through old price.
That’s the key thing to know about southern Bali: there are lots of villas, they look alike, and they fight for guests on price. In Kintamani, where we’re building, it’s the other way round: almost no competition — but guests don’t turn up on their own either. Two different problems, and they need different fixes.
Every number below comes with a source and a date. Where sources disagree, we show it.
Average nightly rate for a Bali villa: $214 in the deck, $112 on Airbnb
On 24 September 2026 we pulled Airbnb prices for Canggu: entire villas, two bedrooms or more, private pool. First pages of results, 101 listings, two sets of dates.
| Stay | Villas | Median | Middle half | $200+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | 59 | $112 | $95–138 | 4 |
| New Year | 42 | $124 | $93–180 | 6 |
Stays of 14–17 October and 27–30 December 2026. Median is the nightly price of the villa in the middle of the list. Middle half is the range half of the villas fall into. $200+ is how many cost that much or more. Price per night is the trip total as Airbnb shows it, divided by the number of nights; if the total includes platform fees, the night itself is cheaper still. All listings with links are in the file.
Even over New Year, the most expensive time in Bali, half the villas cost less than $124 a night. Six out of forty-two cost more than $200.
So where does $214 come from? It isn’t made up. It’s AirROI’s average across every property in the area from August 2025 to July 2026 (data as of 12 September 2026). That includes big four- and five-bedroom villas and peak months. The villa people buy to rent out usually costs less.
The problem isn’t that someone counts wrong. It’s that the buyer is shown the average, and then has to live on the live price.
Villa revenue in Canggu: falling, even though there are fewer villas
Here’s what AirROI shows for the year from August 2025 to July 2026 (data as of 12 September 2026):
- Canggu: 3,920 properties, 36% of nights booked. Revenue per property for the year: $21,244, down 23% on the year before. The number of properties fell 8%.
- Pererenan, the next district over: 626 properties, 40% of nights booked. Revenue per property: $21,778, down 28%. The number of properties grew 46%.
It looks odd at first: fewer villas in Canggu, and still less money. But guests don’t care where the district line runs. They scroll Airbnb and pick on price and photos. Pererenan grew by almost half in a year and takes the same guests. And more is coming: according to Colliers, around 1,700 new hotel rooms will open in Bali by 2029, mostly five-star, and they’re being built in Ubud and Canggu.
AirDNA shows the same for the island as a whole: from August 2025 to August 2026, Bali’s average nightly rate fell 17.8% to $132.
There’s also a number that gets in the way of our story: according to the same AirDNA data, the island has 46% fewer listings than a year ago, and average revenue per listing rose 76% — weak listings dropped out, so the average now covers a different set of properties. So don’t trust a single average — not someone else’s, and not ours.
Villa occupancy in Kintamani: 20% is true, but not the whole story
Kintamani is a highland above the caldera of Mount Batur, two hours from the airport. Cool, misty in the mornings. No surf, no nightlife, no dense development.
The averages here read like a verdict. AirROI for the same year: 122 properties, 20% of nights booked, a $60 average rate, $2,819 of revenue per property a year. Airbnb agrees: for 14–17 October, the median across 16 listings is $52 a night.
Stop there, and “why build where nobody lives?” is settled. But that average includes everything: rooms in family homes, roadside guesthouses, listings that barely operate. What matters to us is how properties of our class do.
What cabins with a volcano view actually earn
In August 2026, Ruslan Sapega pulled 12 properties on the caldera similar to Nord Nest from AirDNA: standalone cabins and villas with a volcano view, mostly one-bedroom. We took different price segments to see both the ceiling and the floor of the market, and we didn’t drop the weak ones.
| Property | Nightly rate | Occupancy | Annual revenue |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cabin in Kintamani Volcano View | $186 | 79% | $53,400 |
| Kasbah Omara Luxury Villa | $306 | 51% | $52,500 |
| Cabin in Kintamani Volcano View (2) | $186 | 77% | $52,200 |
| Cabin in Kintamani (Volcano View) | $138 | 86% | $42,900 |
| Cabin in Kintamani (Volcano View, 4) | $136 | 79% | $35,700 |
| Black Wood Cabin | $115 | 82% | $34,000 |
| Cabin 3 Blackwood | $112 | 59% | $24,000 |
| Zreal location (zen) | $230 | 98% | $22,800 |
| Luxury Suite Glamping Black Lava View | $221 | 88% | $14,700 |
| Cabin Okana | $144 | 28% | $13,800 |
| Batur Retreat Experience | $99 | 31% | $11,000 |
| Black Wood Cabin (second listing) | $74 | 80% | $10,300 |
AirDNA Rentalizer, August 2026. Revenue is the service’s annual estimate. Three properties — Zreal, Luxury Suite and the second Black Wood — have operated for less than a year: their revenue is lower than their rate and occupancy would give, and their occupancy rests on a short history.
The middle of the sample:
- 79% of nights booked (average 70%);
- $141 a night (average $162);
- $29,000 of revenue per property a year.
That’s a completely different market from “20% and $60”. Eight properties out of twelve are booked two-thirds of nights or more, and the middle of the sample costs more than twice the area average: $141 against $60. It doesn’t have many neighbours. The hard part is elsewhere: there aren’t many guests in Kintamani, and every cabin has to find them itself.
The area average answers a different question — and it misleads in both directions. In Canggu, sales decks use it to show $214 where the villa costs $112, showing income above what a typical villa earns at its live price. In Kintamani, it shows 20% where the middle of our sample is booked almost four nights out of five, scaring people away from a place where the income is.
In AirROI’s data, even the top 10% of Kintamani properties look more modest: booked 47%+ of nights and earning $13,000+ a year — against $53,400 in the top row of our table and $54,020 per villa in the Nord Nest model. Part of it is how the services count: AirROI looks at Airbnb only, and four in ten of its listings in the area are private rooms. So we don’t take a ready-made number from a report: we open the properties themselves, check live prices, and show the whole sample — weak ones included.
We checked our own numbers too
If we’re questioning other people’s averages, we have to test ours the same way. We opened Airbnb for our sample as well. Cabins in the Black Wood complex cost $90 and $140 a night in October; AirDNA has them at $74–115. The two-bedroom Omara villa is $476; AirDNA has $306. For properties of this class, live prices are no lower than AirDNA’s — if anything, higher.
Our nightly rate is what the best achieve, not the average
The Nord Nest model as of August 2026: eight villas, 80% of nights booked, $185 a night. That’s $54,020 of revenue per villa a year.
To be clear. 80% is about the middle of the sample. $185 is the level of the best cabins on the caldera in the table above; in regular Airbnb results for Kintamani on 14–17 October, nothing costs more than $140. In revenue per villa, we’re assuming the result of the top row of the table, not the middle one. In other words, we expect Nord Nest to perform like the best property in the area.
Why we believe it. The top row is a single cabin finding its own guests through Airbnb and Booking. Nord Nest is a hotel: eight villas, a restaurant, a spa, a thermal complex, its own manager and its own marketing. The cabin only has the view. A hotel has reasons for guests to come to it specifically — and those reasons are what we’re building.
And if it doesn’t work out? The model file has a calculation at 50% occupancy. Look at it before you decide, not after. We show the model in full before you invest.
Why you build a hotel here, not a villa
In Canggu the guests are there, and a villa fights its neighbours for them. It fights on price — hence the discounts. “Build, sell, hand over to management” works while there are few villas around, and stops working once identical ones go up next door.
In Kintamani, few guests will come on their own. A standalone villa won’t bring them. A hotel can. The restaurant feeds its own guests and people who came up to the volcano for the day. The spa and the thermal complex serve locals and expats who live in Bali year-round and don’t depend on the season. Some of them end up staying the night.
That’s why villas account for only half of investor income in the Nord Nest model. The other half comes from the spa with the thermal complex and the restaurant. Under the model as of August 2026, a 10% share earns $1,493 a month from the villas, $1,068 from the spa and thermal complex, and $401 from the restaurant; the model takes the spa and thermal complex at 70% occupancy and the restaurant at 60%. That’s the answer to “but nobody lives in Kintamani”. We’re not waiting for guests to turn up. We’re building what they’ll come for.
The hotel market thinks the same way. In Q2 2026 Colliers writes that Bali is growing not on the number of tourists but on how much they spend. Hotel occupancy is 63–65%, the average room rate around $150. In their view, the winners will be hotels that give guests something of their own — wellness, experiences, the island’s nature and culture — not those fighting on discounts.
One more thing. A view of the volcano can’t be built on the next plot, and a new villa across the road won’t block it. In Pererenan, the number of properties grew 46% in a year and average revenue per property fell 28%. Here, the core of the product can’t be copied.
Five questions before buying a villa in Bali
- What do the same kind of properties nearby earn? Not the area average — properties of your format.
- Does the nightly rate in the deck match Airbnb? Open it for your own dates and see what similar villas cost right now.
- How many new properties have appeared nearby in the past year, and how many more are being built?
- What occupancy is the income based on? Is there a calculation at a lower one?
- Where will guests come from if Airbnb starts sending them next door? Does the property earn anything besides rent?
The Airbnb sample is in a file, the AirDNA sample for Kintamani is in the table above. Anyone can check them. And who gets paid from a booking before the villa owner is in “The line ahead of the investor’s money”.